In 2020, all buses in key cities of the Ministry o

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Ministry of transport: in 2020, all buses in key cities will be replaced with new energy vehicles. On March 5, it was learned from the planning and Construction Bureau of Lanzhou new area that the projects of Zhouqu Xinyuan bus initial and terminal station and Qinchuan bus (passenger) station in Lanzhou new area have been completed. At present, the planning and Construction Bureau of Lanzhou new area is actively coordinating with relevant departments to speed up the operation of Zhouqu Xinyuan bus initial and terminal station and Qinchuan bus (passenger) station

it is understood that the Zhouqu Xinyuan bus initial and terminal station project is located at the intersection of two roads to the east of jing14 road and to the north of Zhouqu road in the new area. Lanzhou public transport group is responsible for the construction, with a total land area of about 7770 square meters. After it is completed and put into operation, it will play a very important role in improving the traffic infrastructure of the new area, improving the public transport conditions of regional roads, and expanding the coverage and development space of public transport

the Qinchuan bus (passenger) station project is located in Qinchuan Town, the new area. It is constructed by the municipal administration group of the new area, with a total investment of about 35million yuan and an area of about 42 mu. The foam granulator in the passenger station is equipped with necessary facilities for the station, such as station service room, dispatching room, waiting corridor, maintenance room and logistics and living service room. The completion and operation of the bus (passenger) station will fill the gap that there is no bus (passenger) station in Qinchuan town of the new area. At the same time, it will further improve the public transport network layout of Lanzhou New Area, improve the urban appearance, and vigorously promote the urban civilization construction of the new area

recently, the Ministry of transport issued a formal notice that by the end of 2020, all buses in the built-up areas of key regions, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and cities specifically designated in the state plan will be replaced with new energy vehicles

according to the above objectives, in the future, buses will be fully electrified, and a large number of traditional fuel buses will be eliminated. It is expected that the market capacity of new energy buses will exceed one million. This is undoubtedly a great benefit to the new energy bus industry. But at present, there are only less than two years left. Can the goal of full electrification of buses be achieved? Can the new energy bus market enter the fast lane in the future

recently, we interviewed industry experts and enterprise leaders on relevant issues to understand the opportunities and challenges faced by the current new energy bus market

"it is not so easy to achieve the goal"

"it is not so easy to achieve the goal of full electrification of buses." During the interview, insiders said one after another

among them, Wang Jian, a public transport scholar at Chongqing Jiaotong University, pointed out that from the perspective of the number of new energy buses in various regions, the promotion effect of other cities has not been ideal except Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and other developed cities, where the proportion of new energy buses is relatively high. In this case, it is a big challenge to realize the full electrification of buses in key areas by 2020

"this goal is difficult for some cities in the central and western regions." Lidusheng, director of the brand Department of Zhongtong bus, said that the challenge mainly lies in the supporting infrastructure such as charging piles. "While the number of new energy buses is increasing, charging pile equipment must be used to support good operation results." However, he pointed out that the construction of charging piles needs to occupy a large area of land, but now every inch of urban land is worth an inch of money, and land approval can be said to be fraught with difficulties. The construction of charging piles cannot be effectively followed up, which makes many public transport enterprises shy away from new energy vehicles

in addition, lidusheng also stressed that while completing the replacement of fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles, we should also focus on the destination of the eliminated fuel vehicles. "It is understood that most public transport enterprises in China purchased fuel buses around 2015, and the purchase quantity is very large. If all buses are replaced with new energy buses in 2020, how to deal with this part of fuel buses is also a thorny problem." He said

"whether the goal can be achieved depends in the final analysis on whether users accept and trust new energy models." Caoguangping, an independent researcher in the new energy automobile industry, said that the average length of bus lines is generally no more than 50 kilometers, and the driving range of any brand of new energy bus can be competent for operation. However, many public transport enterprises still distrust new energy vehicles when choosing vehicles, which greatly hinders the promotion of new energy buses. 2. Inspection gaskets. "In fact, users' concerns still lie in the vehicle itself: whether the technical level is up to standard? Whether the product quality is up to standard? Whether the battery life can meet the requirements? To eliminate these concerns, vehicle enterprises must continuously improve their technical innovation, product quality and after-sales service ability. At the same time, the electrification of public transport also needs to return to the social attribute of the product itself, and think about what kind of product can really be welcomed by users. Only in this way can they The goal of full electrification of buses is expected to be achieved. " He said

the technical route should be diversified

in the opinion of people in the bus industry, it is better to focus on the effect of vehicle energy conservation and emission reduction than specifying the purchase quantity of new energy buses

"the purpose of developing public transport in China is to facilitate people's travel and make them enjoy a better ride. The key is to form a long-term mechanism ride experience and achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. However, it should be noted that the electrification of buses is not the only way to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction." Wang Jian believes that the formulation of this policy deviates from the vision of public transport energy conservation and emission reduction, "If the goal is to save energy and reduce emissions, we should use emission standards to regulate the market, so that products from different technological routes can compete freely and use the best. Respecting the laws of technology and the market is a more reasonable way. In addition, China has a vast territory, and the geographical environment and economic level of each region are different. We should develop public transport according to local conditions."

in addition, Wang Jian also pointed out that the technical routes of new energy buses are divided into many types, but at present, restricted by the subsidy policy, the normal and reasonable carrying and layout of technical routes are affected to a certain extent. "Nowadays, new energy buses mainly have pure electric, hybrid, fuel cell and other technical routes. In order to meet the subsidy policy, bus enterprises are relatively passive in adjusting the technical route, which is extremely detrimental to the technological innovation of products." He said that at this time, there is another wave of policy promotion in the field of public transport, which will certainly attract more capital. At this time, it is very easy to have problems such as poor product quality and technical level

"China's new energy bus industry should co-exist with a variety of technical routes, and the choice of product technical routes should be returned to enterprises and the market. In addition, the public transport sector largely depends on state subsidies. With government support, we should try our best to achieve high-quality development while developing in scale, so as to realize continuous product innovation and refined production." Caoguangping said

as for the selection of technical routes for new energy buses, caoguangping reminded: "for the technical routes that can not meet the economic and social benefits for the time being, it is recommended to do more research in the laboratory, and remember not to try in the field of public transport easily to obtain state subsidies. Products should be responsible for the use effect, the safety of the people, and the investment of the state."

in Wang Jian's opinion, the technical route should be selected in combination with the actual situation, such as trolley bus, fuel cell bus and hybrid electric bus

the new energy bus market can be expected in the future

if it is promoted according to the schedule formulated by the Ministry of transport, the new energy bus market will release a lot of demand

"at present, all bus enterprises are 'gearing up', actively preparing for more orders." Lidusheng said, "in 2017, the national bus ownership was about 650000, of which 270000 were new energy buses, and the ownership replacement rate reached 35.9%. Overall, the market potential is still great, and all enterprises have the opportunity to fight. This release of demand will bring great help to the new energy bus market."

"in 2018, China sold 91000 new energy buses over 6 meters in total, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Among the top ten new energy bus enterprises, only four enterprises showed an upward trend." Liu Wei (a pseudonym), an expert in the bus industry, said that the gradual decline of subsidies has led to a slowdown in the growth of the energy bus market of the new WDS series liquid crystal electronic tensile testing machine, which is a new material testing machine combining electronic technology and mechanical transmission. In addition, compared with passenger cars, the subsidy amount for new energy buses is higher, so it is also relatively affected by the decline. However, with the improvement of the government's requirements for the clean energy of public transport, the new energy bus market will usher in significant benefits

"in the past few years, although the pace of bus electrification in the first and second tier cities has been relatively fast, the market space for new energy buses still exists." The regional manager of a brand said: "taking the Beijing market as an example, only more than half of the 28000 buses have been updated; the third and fourth tier cities have more room for market development, and with the help of policies, the new energy bus market can be expected in the future."

in Li Dusheng's opinion, in addition to policy promotion, prominent economic advantages are also the key factor for the gradual recognition of new energy buses. "Nowadays, more and more public transport enterprises begin to pay attention to the full life cycle cost, which is the advantage of new energy buses." He pointed out that although the purchase cost of new energy buses is higher, compared with traditional fuel buses, their later maintenance and operation costs are lower. Based on the full life cycle cost, new energy buses do have certain advantages, which is also the reason why bus companies prefer new energy buses

hydrogen fuel cell buses are also of special concern. At present, the hydrogen fuel cell bus has ushered in the market introduction period, and the mainstream bus enterprises have launched corresponding products

in fact, the rapid development of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is closely related to the preferential subsidy policy. In the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2018, only the subsidy standard for fuel cell vehicles remains unchanged. This means that fuel cells will not be affected when other new energy vehicle subsidies decline. In addition, with the promotion of bus electrification in key cities, it is expected that hydrogen fuel buses will also usher in a period of rapid development

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